One Big, Beautiful Newsletter
Special "A trillion here, a trillion there" edition
The view from the New England shore during a recent run.
As I write this, the House appears to have accepted the Senate’s version of the One Big Beautiful Bill rather easily (as I predicted would happen in the last issue).
Don’t worry, it’s your grandkids’ money! I shouldn’t joke about the looming debt increase, because it’s going to be fantastically huge. You don’t need to be a fiscal conservative to question the wisdom of borrowing a few more trillion dollars (at rates that are likely to remain high for the foreseeable future). We could discuss the policy implications of the bill for hours, but I suspect the extreme fiscal impact is really the most important issue here.
I heard this stat recently that blew my mind: A million seconds ago is the middle of June. A billion seconds ago is the mid-1990s. A trillion seconds ago is nearly 30,000 BC. A trillion dollars is a truly incomprehensible amount. This bill will add $3-6 trillion to the debt over the next decade. Anyone reading this who is under the age of, say, 50 is going to pay little of it. The rest of you? Good luck.
My take on government budgeting is pretty straightforward: Collect the taxes you need to offer the government services you want. We can (and will!) argue about the correct level of taxes and services, but revenue and expenses need to be as close as possible. Running a small debt makes sense (thank you, Alexander Hamilton!), but you can’t run massive deficits year after year without the house of cards eventually collapsing. Near zero interest rates and having the world’s reserve currency allowed us to run large deficits … but are those days coming to an end? Unfortunately, our political system creates lots of incentives to avoid the huge benefit cuts that a huge tax cut requires. We’ll see how well this works out!
But let’s discuss more positive things. I just returned from DC and the Hopkins Education Policy Program’s annual summer seminar week. We condensed it into 2.5 days this year and moved it from August to June. Somehow it was hotter this weekend that it was in early June last year! But the students, alumni, and guest speakers were real troopers and did not let the sticky weather get them down. I’ll share more details about the experience in the events section below, but the enthusiasm of the students for improving the system was palpable and energizing. Suffice it to say for now that it was another great experience with wonderful people!
Something Short
I recently appeared on Dr. Rebecca Resnik’s Cultivating Excellence podcast. We covered a range of topics but generally focused on advanced education and accelerated learning.
Something a Bit More Involved
A number of recent developments have me thinking about innovation and change in higher education. My colleague Josh Brown has tackled this topic in a couple recent posts in his Substack newsletter (see link below to one such post), and the regrettable dismissal of the UVA president, Jim Ryan, and the perplexing elimination of over 100 degree programs at IU have added to my thinking.
The example of business schools has always fascinated me. Many moons ago, the business community realized it needed better post-graduate training for its leaders. Hence the modern MBA program. But it wasn’t the Ivy League that innovated in this space, it was Villanova and others schools that presumably had less to risk and more to gain. Once the innovation took off, then the established elite schools swooped in and essentially copied the innovation. We could give a million examples of this across domains and fields, but I work in higher ed so this example has always stuck with me.
Lots of people believe higher ed needs to change, and I could talk your ear off about the reforms I’d like to see. But we have to temper that desire for big changes with the acknowledgement that our best universities are huge talent magnets for the country. The schools can’t be that bad if over a million of the world’s best and brightest flock here every year to study.
So I’m of mixed mind on these issues. Yes, we need to make some big changes to higher ed, and I’d love to see more innovation. But let’s not throw the baby out with the bathwater.
That’s my issue with the government overreach in this space, at both the federal and state level. Higher ed is resistant to change, but I’m not sure elected officials with limited higher education experience are the best people to direct that change. The firing of Jim Ryan is shameful, and I lost respect for the UVA Board of Visitors and Virginia political leaders who hung him out to dry. My take on the situation is that a small group of disgruntled activists conspired to force him out. Do they all feel better with themselves because they are holding his scalp? I sure hope so, because they did nothing to improve the university here and took out a leader who, by most accounts, is an effective leader and good man (and who cleaned up a lot of issues from the messy end of his predecessor’s tenure).
Same with the IU situation. It’s complicated (e.g., I’ve heard lots of rumors that the current IU leadership requested that the state force the program eliminations), but again, are we sure there aren’t some babies getting tossed with the bathwater here?
Of course, I’m a massive hypocrite here, as I don’t want elected officials at any level telling me how higher ed should run, but (1) reforming from within is, in my experience, extraordinarily difficult, (2) I don’t disagree with some of the changes being forced upon us (if greatly objecting to the means being used), and (3) I also want state governments and the feds to support higher education (i.e., there will always be strings attached, which is fair). But how do we push forward with higher ed reform while maintaining the excellence that been a major economic and cultural engine for the country? I wrestle with this daily and would love to hear people’s thoughts.
One thing I’m sure about, though, is that using government power to threaten university funding to micromanage major strategic decisions is always a loser. I’m a fan of limited government because state planning rarely works. Didn’t we fight the Cold War over this point? But seriously, how can we use market forces to drive innovation with light-touch government involvement? That’s the key question, and I’m certain the answer isn’t “Wait until federal and state elected officials force universities to change.”
I know I’m all over the place on these issues, and I’m using this space to workshop some semblance of organization to my thoughts. These are complex issues, but they are very important and broadly applicable to innovation and change management in other institutions.
(If you’re not subscribing to Josh’s free newsletter, I highly recommend it.)
Some Things That Intrigued Me
Privacy is dead. On at least a half dozen occasions this year, I’ve been asked to send sensitive information over regular email (my SSN, bank account details, etc.). The fact that it is almost always people in finance departments making the requests bewilders me. Let’s be clear here: You should never do this. Call them with the information and have them confirm that they won’t be forwarding your sensitive information via unencrypted email. The fact that we have normalized this behavior is the equivalent of normalizing the act of walking through dark alleys with wads of cash in your hands - eventually, someone’s taking your money. Also, freeze your credit with the three credit rating agencies to decrease the odds of a huge loss when your info gets hacked. If you learn nothing else from this newsletter, freeze that credit!
Quote from a Cato Institute newsletter about eliminating the U.S. Department of Education. “ …we must not lose sight of the goal of ending this damaging and unconstitutional bureaucracy.” I LOL’d at this one. A little dramatic! How is the existence of U.S. ED been damaging over its ~35 year history? And someone should write a piece noting all the federal agencies and functions that aren’t mentioned in the Constitution. Spoiler alert: Education is far from the only one.
Are STEM careers still a sure thing? I’ve shared related items in past issues, but the job market is so chaotic right now regarding “safe” jobs and careers. This brief AEI piece shares some relevant data. Part of it is AI, part of it is continued software development, part of it is normal economic change. Regardless of the cause, I’m not sure there are predictable career paths anymore.
Abundance policy from … Sen. Mike Lee? You never know where ideas will come from! In this case, Sen. Lee’s “Let’s build houses on a small slice of federal land” was pilloried in the media but wasn’t the worst idea. This piece from Cato felt on-target for me. Like most Cato stuff, it’s unnecessarily flippant but overall a good take. As an aside, libertarian ideas would be more palatable to people if they were shared with less attitude. I think of most Americans as being “gently libertarian,” and many of these “low-touch government” positions can be broadly appealing. Libertarians would have more success if they came across better.
Breaking: Fathers are important. Who knew? But seriously, this new policy brief provides an interesting argument. This brief intrigues me, as among the authors are people whose work I greatly respect … and others. The comments are set within the Virginia context but are universally relevant. We can nitpick the research a bit here, but my major take-away from previous research remains unchanged: Strong involvement in children’s lives from two parents is a critical foundation for success.
The new credentialism. This AEI report on credentials gave me a lot of food for thought. The authors make several points, with major take-aways including (1) credentials, which are essentially non-degree-earning courses and training, are becoming very popular; (2) some credentials really improve the participants’ earning potential, although some are essentially worthless in an earnings sense; and (3) public funding for credentials should be tied to whether the program in question has demonstrated that its economic/career value for participants. I can’t argue with any of those points/recommendations.
RIP, Prof. Kauffman. I recently learned that James Kauffman, a special education professor at the University of Virginia, had passed away last year. I didn’t know Prof. Kauffman when I was a student at UVA, but he often invited me to contribute to his edited books, and I enjoyed interacting with him. He was a great thinker and passionate supporter of children with disabilities. This reflection by his colleague John Wills Lloyd is a touching tribute to Prof. Kauffman and all the positive change to which he contributed:
Some Things I Found to be Cool
Special exhibit at the Smithsonian American Art Museum. SAAM currently has an exhibition collecting work by three prominent Japanese-American artists, Hisako Hibi, Miki Hayakawa, and Miné Okubo. All three women were interred in the Japanese-American camps during WWII but produced amazing paintings before, during, and after the war. I’ve been twice and really love it. Definitely worth a visit if you’re in DC (and it’s one of the few DC museums open after 5:00PM!). These are two of my favorite works from the exhibit, but I honestly could have picked another dozen - there are that many amazing pieces on display. The first painting is by Hibi, the second by Hayakawa. Hibi’s work especially interests me because she developed several unique styles over the course of her long career. She was not a one-trick pony!
A paean to weird dudes. I’m a little lukewarm on the weird comedian genre, as sometimes it works for me but often doesn’t at all. I’m a bigger fan of clever, well-constructed sets (Baby Cobra, James Acaster’s Netflix specials, etc.). But this article was an interesting comparison/contrast between two people who belong on the Mount Rushmore of strange comedians, Andy Kaufman and Paul Reubens.
Nature always wins. At a point along the shore where I often run, someone put out a fake, plastic coyote to keep the Canada geese from crapping all over their dock area. Putting aside that I nearly had a heart attack when I first encountered the fake coyote during a late night run, I wondered how long it would take before the geese realized it was fake. See below: Not long. Indeed, as I ran by last night at sunset, there were at least 15 geese hanging out around the coyote.
This exchange in an airport recently. Father to his son and daughter in the Auntie Anne’s line: “Hey, why don’t you get the hot dog.”
Son, very confused: “But … [waves his hand at the sign] they have Oreo-covered pretzels.”
Dad: “You don’t need that. Get the hot dog.”
Son, even more confused: “But … [waves his hand at the sign] they have Oreo-covered pretzels.”
Jade Plant of the Month
I was at Lowe’s looking to make some spare keys, and after 15 minutes of waiting (and several requests for assistance), I gave up and left. Well, not until after visiting the jade plant section, of course. That’s how I ended up adopting several new, small jade plants. Look at these beauties! Wavy-leaf jade, thin leaf jade, compact jade, wild jade, even two red jades! (I realize Californians are thinking, “What’s special about red jade?” But in other parts of the country, we almost never see it.) I’m letting them bask in the sun for a bit then will repot them in various combinations. For now, it makes for an interesting jade centerpiece!
Recent and Upcoming Events
I. Love. Policy. Camp. Welcoming the new cohort in the Johns Hopkins Master’s Program in Education Policy to DC each summer is a highlight of the year for me. In addition, increasing numbers of alumni and continuing students attend, which greatly enriches the experience for everyone.
This cohort has really blown me away! Smart, funny, highly committed to learning about policy and how we can use it to improve people’s lives. It’s going to be a great year!
Our speakers this year included my colleagues Richard Lofton, Becca Cruz, Henry Smith, and David Steiner, Kim Hymes from the U.S. ED Office of Special Education Programs, Tony Bennett, the former state chief in Indiana and Florida and President of K12.com, Jen Madsen, a parent advocate from the New Jersey Association for Gifted Children, several continuing students and alumni who participated in a Q&A panel for students, and Hill staffers James Rice (legislative director for Sen. Grassley), Julie Jochem (LD for Rep. Sherrill), and Sam DeVito (LD for Rep. Norcross). We also had several Hopkins SOE leaders and staff spend time with the students to share resources and other sources of support. I’m grateful to the speakers for donating their time and expertise to the cause, to the SOE team for supporting us (several staff took time away from their primary responsibilities to help us manage the seminar), and especially to Camilla Mika-Simms, who supports me in running the program (with a big assist from our colleague Jenny Fordham).
Where to Find Me
email: jplucker@jhu.edu
http://Amazon.com/author/jonathanplucker
www.linkedin.com/in/jonathanplucker
Not saying the additional trillions in debt are a good idea, but they also need to be viewed in the context of the rate of economic growth. If GDP grows faster than the nominal debt increases, then debt / GDP will decline. And if GDP can grow 1-2% faster than the debt over the course of a decade, there can be a material decline in debt / GDP. So it’s in all our interest to hope that de-regulated, growth-oriented economic policy can generate this outcome.